绩效管理：企业面临的未来变化趋势

未来变化趋势

Future Flux An Outlook of Change

In a century that moved our transportation from horse trails to

interplanetary trajectories, changed our communications tools from quill

pens to computers, and took our culture from bacon and beans to sushi and

burritos, some people think they've seen it all. But, futurists say, the

winds of change witnessed in the 1900s are a summer's breeze compared to

the hurricane that lies ahead. The 21st century, they claim, will bring

unprecedented transformation to the world in which we live.

     One trend that is unlikely to change, however, is the

disproportionately large contribution to job creation made by small firms

since 1970.  And based on projections from the U.S. Bureau of Labor

Statistics, the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) estimates that

industries dominated by small business will generate 68 percent of new,

non-farm jobs through the year 2005. That is even higher than the 65

percent of job growth attributed to small business from 1970 to 1990.

     If small business is to retain its lead in job creation, it needs to

adapt to the changes of the 21st century. And while even the wisest

futurist can only speculate as to what will happen, the following five

categories provide a framework for looking at the world of tomorrow.

Globalization

A word that has almost been overused in the business press, globalization

usually brings to mind the worldwide production network of Nike shoes, the

joint automotive facilities of Toyota and General Motors, or industry

giants such as IBM, Coke or McDonald's. In fact, globalization presents

troubling questions for smaller companies as well.  Is it really the next

arena for growth? Can small firms compete effectively?  Does it mean losing

out to big multinationals? The answers, according to David Bretting of C.G.

Bretting Manufacturing Co., Inc., in Ashland, Wisconsin are, "Yes, yes, and

a very emphatic no!"

     Bretting's father, Tad, hasn't rested on his laurels since receiving

the 1989 SBA Small Business Person of the Year award. C.G. Bretting now

distributes in 12 countries outside the United States, and the company's

product lines of napkin, towel and tissue folders are on the verge of

expansion to include machines called "rewinders" that produce toilet paper

and other rolled products. 

     "In 1983, foreign sales accounted for 15 percent of our revenues, and

this year we expect that figure to be 50 percent," says Bretting. "While

we're still a relatively small company, global distribution has come

naturally to us because we have not let expansion affect the quality of our

products or service."

     That quality is winning the company contracts even when pitted against

larger competitors on foreign turf. "Our policy is that if customers call

up with a problem in the morning, whether they are located in Michigan or

Malaysia, we'll have a technician on the way by noon," Bretting comments.

"This kind of service has made us legendary in the industry. Most of our

marketing is through word of mouth and most of our new business comes from

referrals."

     With free trade making almost daily progress around the world,

globalization is increasingly important for companies that want to take

advantage of new consumer markets. Some countries, naturally, are easier to

work in than others. "In 1994, we formed an alliance in mainland China with

a local company, but this is still a relatively unknown market," admits

Bretting. "Considering the horror stories I've heard, moving into global

markets has been amazingly easy for us."

Electronic Economy

Technology provides a large squirt of oil to help lubricate the machinery

of globalization, making it possible for companies like C.G. Bretting to

operate a worldwide network from a small Midwestern town. "A new electronic

heartland is spreading throughout developed countries around the globe,

especially in the United States," claims John Naisbitt, author of the

bestseller Megatrends 2000.  "Rural areas are as technologically linked to

urban centers as are other cities." This "megatrend," he predicts, will

lead to a decline in big cities and increased development in more rural

areas.

     Some fear that this electronic automation will put people out of work.

But one way it is opening up new job options is through the rapid growth of

the information services industry. For example, the amount of data

available through computer networks is staggering. American Political

Network (APN) is one small company that is sorting through the morass and

offering its clients news updates in areas ranging from politics to the

environment. "APN gathers information daily from reporters, political

insiders - everyone appropriate," says APN spokeswoman Julie Samuelson.

"Our clients include the White House, Congress, many large corporations and

all major media. They rely on us to give them succinct summaries of the

latest breaking news in their chosen field."

     The electronic economy is changing the workplace as well. In the last

decade alone, computers, fax machines and modems have brought the office

into homes, cars, airplanes and hotel rooms. Future advances will unite the

telephone, computer and television into one unit. In fact, telephones may

become so portable that many people will have their own individual phone

numbers where they can be reached anywhere in the world.

     While such advances are in development, the "older" technologies that

make telecommuting possible are actively being promoted by cities to combat

clogged highways and smog, and used by employers to accommodate employee

needs and boost productivity. Naisbitt calls these the "electronic

cottages" - the homes connected by technology to the international business

world.

     Interestingly, this same technology is breaking down stereotypes of

the home office. According to a 1993 study by the SBA's Office of Advocacy,

home businesses are not just the realm of people without "real" jobs who

want to earn extra cash. On the contrary, the study found that, while

having fewer employees, home-based business people on average had

significantly higher net worth than their workplace-bound counterparts.

     And the work-at-home segment is growing rapidly.  In 1993, an

estimated 41.1 Americans were working from their homes, or more than a

third of the adult work force, up from 26.8 million in 1989.  California

leads the country in this alternative work style trend with an estimated

four million home offices.

Explosive Growth in the Pacific Rim

If home commuters and "electronic cottages" can stay in contact with the

nearest metropolis, they can also remain in touch with the far side of the

globe. And increasingly, they are joining businesses from manufacturers to

management consultants in reaching across the Pacific Ocean in search of

new opportunities. Spurred on by high technology and freer trade, the

economies of the Asian Pacific Rim - from Korea, Japan and China to Canada

and the United States - are poised to take advantage of new consumer

markets and the steady spread of capitalism. 

     Doing business with one's neighbors across the Pacific is an historic

undertaking. Half a millennium ago, says Naisbitt, world trade gravitated

towards the Atlantic and away from the Mediterranean.  He notes that the

shift to the Pacific Rim is powered by economics - the region is growing at

five times the rate of expansion experienced during the Industrial

Revolution.

     The following statistics reflect this unprecedented growth:

* China's exports rose 46 percent from 1986 to 1988.

* South Korea's GNP, in real terms, is rising 10 percent annually.

* Malaysia is the world's third largest producer of integrated circuits,  

  after the United States and Japan.

     U.S. firms should take advantage of these developments. Joel Kotkin,

co-author of The Third Century: America's Resurgence in the Asian Era,

says, "To succeed, the United States must engineer a radical reappraisal of

the world view. By ignoring new growth markets, American businesses could

well be conceding vast fields of opportunity." In contrast, companies that

recognize the opportunity can take part and find profit in the inevitable

growth of Pacific Rim countries.

Regulatory and Tax Reform 

The development of the Pacific Rim and the world economy, predicts

Naisbitt, may gain momentum from a worldwide "tax reform revolution."

Following the precedents of the United States, Australia, Great Britain and

Sweden, he claims, other countries will reduce tax rates to maintain

competitiveness. The result will be a worldwide economic boom and increased

standards of living.

     Tax and regulatory reform, add U.S. businesses, must also occur at

home. The rising use of the "electronic cottage" provides one example of

the need for fiscal reform. The Supreme Court in 1993 disallowed a

surgeon's deduction of home office expenses, raising fears that home

offices would be a tax liability. Since then, however, Congress has

introduced several bills to refine the definition of home office to

accommodate those who use their homes for some business needs. 

     Change is not slated only for home businesses. Bills are in Congress

to ease the restrictions on S-corporations, a reform that would benefit a

number of smaller firms. Business taxes in general may see reductions if

they follow the precedent set by Mayor Richard Riordan, who lowered Los

Angeles business taxes in 1994. Also on the docket are plans to raise the

dollar amount not subject to the 55 percent estate tax, which is especially

helpful to family-owned businesses desirous of leaving the company to the

next generation.

     It will take more than minor reforms, however, to achieve the

comprehensive tax reform and regulatory reduction that businesses would

like. Experts are presently struggling to assess the effects of health,

welfare and pension reform on the small business community. At the same

time, long-range planners are examining the possibility of major tax reform

such as a "consumption" tax to replace the present income tax system. Hope

of a more equitable, business-friendly environment drives reformers in

their quest for a better system.

Workplace Changes: Organization and Constitution 

While regulatory change shapes business from the outside, demographic and

philosophical trends alter it from within. The workplace of the future will

feature new styles of participatory management, and more flexible work and

holiday schedules to accommodate families and attract quality employees.

     The new workplace is not some "warm and fuzzy" environment where

managers encourage days off and ask how you feel about the company just

because they care. On the contrary, it reflects new management techniques

and incentive programs taught at the best business schools. The aim is

always to improve the bottom line - to get workers to accomplish more in

less time. Research in management and human psychology is demonstrating

that greater efficiency is possible outside the traditional hierarchical

and directive nine-to-five workplace.

     Through their increased presence in middle management, women have

played an active role in these managerial changes. But they have also

contributed from the top as bosses themselves. Julie Weeks is director of

research at the National Foundation for Women Business Owners (NFWBO) in

Washington, D.C. "Women-owned businesses employed more people in the United

States in 1992 than Fortune 500 companies employed in the world," she

notes. "This fact alone exemplifies the profound changes that have already

occurred in the workplace, and is a harbinger of more change to come."

     Small businesses are not exempt from the cataclysmic reorganization

that has hit the middle management of larger corporations. Bruce Philips

watches organizational trends at the SBA's Office of Economic Research.

"Technology is making it easier and easier to manage more effectively,

enabling the entrepreneur, for example, to do expenses, calculate

profitability, and track the month's projects all with a few keystrokes,"

he says. "And while large companies are looking to imitate the flexibility

of smaller firms, we see smaller businesses adopting some of the successful

team management techniques larger operations practice."

Power in the Flux

Turn of the century journalist Ambrose Bierce sardonically defined the

future as "the period of time in which our affairs prosper, our friends are

true and our happiness is assured." Realistically, however, the future may

supply conditions no less competitive than the present, and companies of

all sizes will continue to scramble to some degree to survive. But by

taking advantage of key trends that are changing the world as we know it,

sending businesses around the globe and recreating the workplace,

entrepreneurs will continue to fuel the nation's economy through new job

creation, creativity and innovation.  

General Engineering Laboratories:  Internal Changes for Future Growth

Expansion does not always come easily. Just ask George and Molly Greene,

owners of General Engineering Laboratories in Charleston, South Carolina.

They founded the company in 1981 as one of the first analytical

laboratories in the area offering consulting services to help clients

comply with environmental regulations, and growth immediately skyrocketed.

"From a one-room office with two employees we became one of the most

recognized environmental consulting firms in the southeast," says George

Greene. Yet, amid the excitement of rapid growth, the company soon began

experiencing internal organization problems.

     "To accommodate expansion, we had recruited local graduates, but they

often found company life dissatisfying," explains Greene. In addition,

communication between employees, simple in a one-room office, became much

more difficult in a larger setting. As a result, employee morale dropped

and turnover rate escalated, reaching 40 percent in 1991. Changes had to be

made quickly to remedy General Engineering's precipitous situation. 

     The Greenes hired a human resources consultant who subdivided the

company into nine mission groups to improve methods of communication among

employees by reinforcing common goals. By tackling the sensitive issue of

internal organization head-on, company morale turned around completely, and

turnover rate plummeted from 40 percent to just one percent.

     "The consultant's ideas and a lot of self-examination helped us make

the company more valuable not only to our clients, but for our own

employees," Greene notes. "By instituting what were often simple changes to

improve communication, we have created an atmosphere where the best ideas

can be quickly implemented." Today, General Engineering's revenues top the

$12 million mark. Its technology and its staff are "ready, willing and

able" to move the company into the next millennium.

Permanent Change for the "Temporary" Industry 

It shouldn't be surprising that MacTemps, Inc. is growing. After all, the

Boston, Massachusetts company is part of an industry that, overall, is

averaging revenue increases of 20 percent annually and profits of about two

percent of sales. But for MacTemps the numbers look even better - growth of

approximately 50 percent and profits around six percent of sales. 

     Such impressive growth earned the company a place on the Inc. 500 list

of America's fastest-growing, privately-held companies for two years

running. But more than growth is unusual at MacTemps. The company is also

bucking industry trends. 

     "The temporary industry is sometimes blamed for contributing to job

insecurity, the health insurance crisis, and the reduction in benefits for

American workers," comments president and founder John Chuang. "But we are

proving that not all temporary companies are equal by offering superior

benefits to our temps, including health and dental insurance, a 401(k)

retirement plan, disability insurance and paid vacations."

     Perhaps trendsetting comes naturally to Chuang. He and three

classmates seized on the temporary worker idea as undergraduates at Harvard

University. There they started out with a small desktop publishing service

which rapidly expanded into providing trained temporary employees for

Macintosh computers. 

     Chuang's philosophy on giving benefits to temporary employees, he

says, is simply good business sense. "Temporary workers function in a new

style of workplace," he explains. "Agencies such as ours give skilled

people unprecedented opportunities for flexibility and mobility in their

lives.

     "Although temporary agencies have been accused of helping to create a

class of workers with little security and few benefits, this is not

necessarily the direction in which all temp agencies are moving," continues

Chuang. "As the industry grows, more companies will be forced to follow our

lead in providing benefits, because benefits are what allow us to attract

the best and the brightest, and that gives us a distinct business

advantage."