2001年大预测几乎全部中标（Tim Landgrave ）

Nearly all 2001 predictions hit home

Tim Landgrave  

Jan 3, 2002

Around this time last year, I made a few predictions about IT market activity for 2001. At the time, of course, I couldn't be too sure if my predictions would hold water, but as you’ll see, I didn’t do too bad. I am proud to say that I hit the mark more often than not. Here are my five predictions, and how (or whether) they played out over 2001.

1. The Bear market will result in failure of E*Trade competitors
Prediction: “By the end of 2001, there will be no more than three or four major online traders standing, and all of them will look more like online banks than online stock managers.”

Outcome: I was pretty much dead on target here. As the market continued to spiral downward, the only pure online play that held its ground was E*Trade, and, as I predicted, it has evolved into an across-the-board, financial-services player from its inception as a pure online stock brokerage.
The companies hit hardest were those vying to make their mark in day trading (e.g., Datek) or in cheap trades with little ancillary value (e.g., Scottrade). The company that seemed to benefit the most from the downsizing of the electronic trading market was American Express. Because AmEx had a niche customer sector in place when the enterprise went to the Web—thanks to strong, established financial relationships with wealthy individuals—it was one of the best performing financial stocks for the year, largely due to the strength of online investment accounts.

2. The big ASP and data center shakeout
Prediction: “By the middle of next year, you should expect the failure and/or acquisitions of many large, public ASPs.”

Outcome: I think all of us expected a shakeout, but the pace at which the Internet economy contracted made this prediction frighteningly real to thousands of ASP employees.
The biggest surprise was the failure of some top financed companies. I can remember sitting in a meeting with a CIO right before my 2001 predictions article published and listening to him tell me that he had moved all his servers to Exodus because “they would be safe there.” Exodus filed bankruptcy on September 26 and is having certain assets and liabilities acquired by Cable and Wireless, PLC.
Data Return, once the darling of the applications infrastructure provider (AIP) market (and heavily funded by Microsoft and Compaq), got acquired for pennies on the dollar by divine, Inc., a company whose strategy resembles that of Computer Associates. Divine, Inc., is to the Internet space what Charles Wang and CA were to the dying mainframe space. (CA’s claim to fame is buying up distressed technologies, repackaging them, and attempting to live on residuals.)
I also predicted that Microsoft and Oracle wouldn’t sit idle while other companies made services revenue on hosting their software. Oracle now tightly controls the hosting of its financial systems, and this year, Microsoft announced its intention to sell Great Plains, which is hosted through its bCentral organization. Microsoft has also announced its MyServices initiative. By the end of next year, the company will be in a position to collect millions from consumers by providing hosted mail, collaboration, calendaring, and Wallet services.